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Prediction for CME (2015-11-16T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-11-16T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9706/-1
CME Note: CME associated with a second filament eruption visible in SDO 193/171/304 starting around 02UT.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-11-18T19:24Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-11-18T10:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Nov 16 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Nov 16-Nov 18 2015 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Nov 16-Nov 18 2015

            Nov 16     Nov 17     Nov 18
00-03UT        4          2          2     
03-06UT        3          2          3     
06-09UT        3          3          4     
09-12UT        3          2          4     
12-15UT        1          2          3     
15-18UT        1          2          3     
18-21UT        2          2          3     
21-00UT        3          2          4  


Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Nov 16 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at very low levels. Region 2449 (S10, L=211)
produced a few B-class flares during the period. Regions 2453 (N06W29,
Bxo/beta) and 2455 (N15E15, Dro/beta) underwent minor development this
period.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) off the west limb was observed in C2
coronagraph imagery beginning at 15/2048 UTC. Additional data is needed
before analysis can be completed, but a lack of coronal eruptions on the
visible disk suggests that the CME is associated with far-sided activity
and directed away from the Sun-Earth line.

Late on 15 November and early on 16 November, two filament eruptions
occurred in the SW quadrant. The first was an approximate 21 degree long
filament, centered near S11W17, that was observed lifting off around
15/2114 UTC. The second was an approximate 19 degree long filament,
centered near S26W24, that was observed lifting off around 16/0114 UTC.
These eruptions were observed in both SDO/AIA 193 and 304 imagery as
well as GONG imagery. Limited coronagraph imagery prevented complete
analysis, however given their location and initial trajectory, an
Earth-directed component is probable.

Lead Time: 42.05 hour(s)
Difference: 9.40 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-11-17T01:21Z

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